{"art_url":"https://d1liwsgvdtvkdb.cloudfront.net/art/q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc/qm-ascii-fit-v1/119f68e112728a44065ad1f9e7663c2211a833dc18a94791574fb495ada7d595/1200.jpg","art_url_600":null,"id":"q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc","text":"When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?","display_title":null,"slug":"when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial","status":"answered","entities":["TECH","GEOPOLITICS"],"ref_url":"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45169/when-will-the-first-drone-cause-a-deadly-crash-of-a-commercial-passenger-flight/","forecasters":4,"created":"2026-08-21T00:00:00Z","budget_cents":500,"tier":"standard","raised_cents":500,"funders":1,"artifact":{"id":"a_6a941bbe1a441369ec","question_id":"q_6a932ae19f4dd786bc","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":null,"teaser":{"summary":"There is a 6% probability that a drone will cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight before August 30, 2036, as rising near-misses are offset by advancing aviation safety and counter-drone technologies.","verdict":"As of August 30, 2026, there have been no confirmed deadly crashes of a commercial passenger flight caused by an Unmanned Aerial System (drone), as recorded by international aviation authorities such as the ICAO or national transport safety boards [1, 2].","citations":9},"downloads":2,"unique_buyers":2,"age_hours":1130.4}}