{"art_url":"https://d1liwsgvdtvkdb.cloudfront.net/art/q_6a932ae218c2d51b70/qm-ascii-fit-v1/82a4dde15a3bb0cf36e1c88c462bdc40ad5b282cd0cf8e28e534c60b526d5dbd/1200.jpg","art_url_600":null,"id":"q_6a932ae218c2d51b70","text":"Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.","display_title":"Can Fervo 2x or 10x from its ~$10B valuation?","slug":"fervo-ipo-d-13-may-2026-at-27-and-trades-35-10b-on-0-14m-of","status":"answered","entities":["FRVO"],"ref_url":null,"forecasters":null,"created":"2026-06-22T00:00:00Z","budget_cents":1500,"tier":"standard","raised_cents":0,"funders":0,"artifact":{"id":"a_6a932ae21ac64b6de8","question_id":"q_6a932ae218c2d51b70","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":"https://frvo-dossier.us-east-1.gists.org","teaser":{"summary":"No, Fervo is not an easy 2x: P(double,12mo) 0.23 versus P(halve,12mo) 0.48, with 10x at 0.025. The upside is a call option on Cape Station and a 500MW Google PPA, but ~205M shares unlocking into an ~80M float add pressure.","verdict":"**A call option, not an easy 2x.** P(double,12mo) 0.23 vs P(halve,12mo) 0.48; 5x 0.07, 10x 0.025. ~205M shares unlock ~10 Nov into an ~80M float (Arnold/Centaurus among them). Cape first power 0.52, 500MW Google PPA 0.27, beats-QQQ 0.34. Starter size only; size for the lockup.","headline":{"direction":"mixed","confidence_band":"medium","magnitude_class":"moderate"},"question":"Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.","citations_count":0},"downloads":0,"unique_buyers":0,"age_hours":2798.5}}