{"art_url":"https://d1liwsgvdtvkdb.cloudfront.net/art/q_6a932ae2a1285ec9ca/qm-ascii-fit-v1/b945989fcaeb29c56e09d24565fed2ab636f93b560dcd7d8f4c6d5cd28650941/1200.jpg","art_url_600":null,"id":"q_6a932ae2a1285ec9ca","text":"The largest IPO ever, with only a ~4.9% float — work out whether the supply wall makes it shortable, and if so, how.","display_title":null,"slug":"the-largest-ipo-ever-with-only-a-4-9-float-work-out-whether-the","status":"answered","entities":["SPCX"],"ref_url":null,"forecasters":null,"created":"2026-06-15T00:00:00Z","budget_cents":1500,"tier":"standard","raised_cents":0,"funders":0,"artifact":{"id":"a_6a932ae2f9d6a9be89","question_id":"q_6a932ae2a1285ec9ca","latest_rev":1,"machine_price_cents":50,"freshness_hours":72,"external_url":"https://spcx-dossier.us-east-1.gists.org","teaser":{"summary":"No, SpaceX is not a short here: P(short net-profitable) = 0.15 despite the bearish price, so the supply wall should not be shorted.","verdict":"**Not a short here:** P(short net-profitable) = 0.15 despite a bearish price. Short the supply wall, not the IPO pop.","headline":{"direction":"mixed","confidence_band":"medium","magnitude_class":"moderate"},"question":"The largest IPO ever, with only a ~4.9% float — work out whether the supply wall makes it shortable, and if so, how.","citations_count":0},"downloads":0,"unique_buyers":0,"age_hours":2968.5}}